The Brief

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on Gulf nations to “expel foreign aggressors” hosting U.S. military forces, dismissing Trump’s simultaneous appeal for an international warship coalition in the Strait of Hormuz as “begging.” The competing demands — issued on day 15 of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran — landed on Gulf states already absorbing Iranian missile and drone strikes on the very bases Tehran now asks them to close.

The Report

Iran’s foreign minister used a post on X to frame the American military presence in the Gulf as a liability rather than an asset, writing that the “touted US security umbrella has proven to be full of holes and inviting rather than deterring trouble.” Araghchi called on “brotherly neighbours to expel foreign aggressors, especially as their only concern is Israel.”

The statement arrived hours after Trump announced plans for a multinational naval force to secure the Strait of Hormuz, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the United Kingdom as countries he hoped would contribute warships. No named country confirmed participation. Trump claimed the U.S. had “totally obliterated every military target” on Iran’s Kharg Island while deliberately sparing oil infrastructure, and warned of further strikes if Iran continued to interfere with maritime traffic.

The simultaneous appeals placed Gulf monarchies at the centre of a diplomatic vice. Bahrain hosts the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet. Qatar houses Al Udeid Air Base, the largest American installation in the Middle East, with roughly 10,000 troops. Kuwait maintains three major U.S. facilities. The UAE hosts Al Dhafra Air Base. Since February 28, all four countries have sustained Iranian missile and drone attacks targeting those installations — the UAE alone intercepting 294 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and some 1,600 drones.

Tehran’s message carried a specific threat alongside the diplomatic appeal. The IRGC designated the UAE’s Jebel Ali and Khalifa ports as “legitimate targets,” claiming without evidence that U.S. forces had used civilian port facilities to launch the Kharg Island strikes. Araghchi separately warned that Iran would strike “any energy infrastructure in the region which belongs to an American company or an American company is a shareholder.” A fire had already broken out at Fujairah’s bunkering hub after debris from an intercepted drone hit an oil facility, suspending loading operations at a terminal handling approximately one million barrels daily.

The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned Iran’s attacks as “barbaric aggressions” and reaffirmed its commitment to diplomatic solutions, but no member state has moved to either expel U.S. forces or join offensive operations against Iran. Qatar halted LNG exports. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait reduced oil production. Several nations — India, Turkey, France, and Italy — bypassed Washington entirely, negotiating vessel passage directly with Tehran. Two Indian-flagged tankers crossed the strait safely after Prime Minister Modi spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian.

Andreas Krieg, a security analyst at King’s College London, described Trump’s coalition call as “a desperate move in an information campaign to calm markets,” noting that sending warships would expose “very, very expensive military vessels to very cheap but potentially very effective projectiles.” Brent crude exceeded $100 per barrel, its highest level in nearly four years, with roughly one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies normally transiting the strait now largely frozen.

Iran’s own messaging remained contradictory. Araghchi addressed Gulf states as “brothers” while the IRGC threatened their ports. President Pezeshkian had apologised to neighbours for Iranian strikes days earlier, only for the Revolutionary Guards to immediately override him. Araghchi himself had admitted that Iran’s armed forces were “in fact, independent and somewhat isolated,” operating under pre-issued instructions rather than real-time civilian direction. The strait, Iran insisted, was closed only to “enemies and their allies” — though in practice, commercial traffic had dropped by 90 percent.

The Angle

The structural fact underneath both appeals is the same: the Gulf states are being asked to choose a side by two parties that have already demonstrated they will act without consulting them. Trump and Israel launched a war from bases on Gulf territory without, by most accounts, serious prior coordination with host nations. Iran retaliated against those hosts within hours. Now both belligerents want the same governments to make a decision that neither thought to involve them in before the first bombs fell.

Araghchi’s framing — that U.S. bases have become magnets for strikes rather than shields against them — is not novel analysis. Marc Lynch of George Washington University noted the identical conclusion weeks ago: “There is a profound sense that U.S. military bases have become a source of threat rather than security.” The vulnerability was visible as far back as 2019, when Iranian-linked forces struck Saudi Aramco facilities and drew no meaningful American defensive or retaliatory response. What changed on February 28 was not the structural exposure. It was the cost of ignoring it.

The more revealing detail is who is actually moving through the strait. India negotiated its own passage. Turkey negotiated its own passage. France and Italy opened their own channels to Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran has shipped 11.7 million barrels of crude to China since the war began. The coalition Trump is requesting — ships from countries that have not agreed to send them, securing a waterway that individual nations are already securing through bilateral diplomacy with the country supposedly blockading it — describes a command structure that exists primarily as announcement. The Gulf states have noticed. Their response to both Tehran’s demand and Washington’s request has been the same: absorb the incoming fire, intercept what they can, commit to nothing, and wait to see which arrangement actually keeps the oil moving.